Hello team ~
[posted January 8, 2010] I know you are all frustrated with our economy, the furloughs and our financial prospects for the future. Today was an important day in America's recovery - and we got VERY BAD news. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the monthly job report for December 2009. While many experts had predicted an improved job outlook - we got the opposite. The nation shed some 85,000 jobs last month.

Keep in mind these are preliminary figures and could be revised upward in the February report but this is the best information we have at this time.

What does this mean to us?
If you look at the above chart you will see a black upward sloping line beginning in January 2009. Our national economy, although still losing jobs through most of 2009, was improving by about 100,000 jobs per month.

Premiminary figures for November 2009 had suggested the economy only lost about 11,000 jobs and revised figures actually showed the economy produced a net positive gain of 4,000 jobs. Thus we had HOPED to see a net positive gain around 100,000 jobs in December due to the holiday shopping season. Instead it appears our economy suffered a net LOST of 85,000 jobs.

Economists assumed consumers dug a bit deeper in their wallets over the last 45 days and likely increased household debt as well to finance this holiday spending. As a consequence we now expect families to tighten their belts during the first quarter of 2010, as they pay down their holiday spending. Businesses see these trends and postpone new hiring and lay off unneeded staff.

Due to holiday spending the December 2009 report should have bumped up a bit, which would have allowed us to compensate for the expected Q1 2010 downturn. Since December 2009 showed a loss rather than a gain, this suggests Q1 2010 will be even more dismal that previously expected.

Double Dip?
This preliminary information increases the chance we will face a "double dip" recession - meaning we might see employment conditions head south - as the national economy sheds more jobs in January, February and possibly March. If this occurs our state government will collect less revenue and the budget shortfall will worsen.

We'll have to wait until February 5th to get the next job report but I would use this information to guide your budget and prepare for the future. Anticipate economic conditions to worsen, which means we might be hit will additional furloughs, pay cuts or layoffs.

Political Ramifications
Local papers and media have posted a number of proposals for managing the state's shortfall. I am not concerned about these draft plans at this time - but do expect we will suffer additional pay (or benefit) cuts in the upcoming year. The reality is this: there is not enough money to go around - and there is little chance this will change in 2010.

What Is Your Union Doing?
First your eBoard members reached into their own pockets and solicited volunteer donations from other workers to build a Furlough Relief Fund. Contact me if you are struggling and I'll give you information how to apply for relief.

Second your union leaders are researching budget options and preparing to mobilize during the upcoming legislative session. Any and all efforts will require your participation.

Public Opinion
I don't want to inflate your expectations though. I have been studying public attitudes and opinion relative to government employees, unions and our current budget shortfall. We are not loved.

As I have mentioned previously we have witnessed three decades of government sector/public employee bashing. America seems to need an enemy to drive our democracy. Whether communists in the 1950-1980s, Islamic extremists or government today, we have been demonized by the conservative Right in this country.

For you to continue receiving your current pay and benefits our state government will need to raise taxes. No politician looks forward to telling this to constituents during a difficult recession.

And thus this is our political reality: will our politicians tell some 1,000,000 voters in an election year they must suffer an increase in taxes to support government - or will they simply hit 20,000 - 50,000 public employees with furloughs or pay (benefit) cuts?

You're smart enough to be able to do the math. The public puts themselves and their families above your paycheck. These are the forces facing us.

Ask yourself ... why should a self-interested public did into their wallets to help you? They've been told for years by politicians on the conservative Right that we are lazy, inefficient and a drag on the private sector. Many in the public believe we are overly paid, received fantastic benefits and have guaranteed jobs for life.

It doesn't matter that this isn't true ... but they see anecdotal stories in the media that reinforce these false sterotypes. To many New Mexicans it is us v. them.

Political Strategies
In the face of this negative reality I'm not suggesting we roll over and play dead - yet we must act smartly.

Since the public generally believes we have easy jobs and are highly overpaid, it would be a disaster on our part to talk strike (although a strike would be illegal). Such a strategy would be answered similarly as President Reagan did with the air traffic controllers in the 1980s - he fired them all.

Likewise large groups of public employees screaming and protesting with signs and song near the Roundhouse won't generate public sympathy either. Voters likely will consider this to be a selfish call for our personal compensation at the cost of increasing their financial burden when they are struggling.

Our legislators face a simple proposition: hurt a small group of public workers with large pay cuts or hurt a large pool of voters with a small tax increase.

What would you do in their place?

Us v. Them
As long as the debate is framed this way, us v. them, we will lose. Therefore we must change the story line. It cannot be public workers against voters and taxes.

1. Togetherness: If the legislature raises taxes then public workers pay the increased taxes as well as the private sector. We are all in this boat together.

2. Assign Appropriate Blame: Neither New Mexico public workers nor New Mexico voters caused this problem. Our current financial crisis stems from the incompentence and greed in the Wall Street financial industry. These BIG corporations and FAT CAT CEOs and executives - considered too big to fail - received taxpayer bailouts to help them get back on their feet. Recently these same financial employees, 119,000+, received average annual bonuses in excess of $250,000.

You didn't get a bonus; you received a pay cut. Most private sector workers in New Mexico didn't get bumps in pay either. We must not battle each other. We must stand together and fight corporate greed for the good of all in the middle class - and for the good of America.

3. Demand Fairness: The bottom line is both public and private workers, who make up the majority of the middle class, have been losing financial ground to the MOST RICH for over 30 years. These trends must change and possibly this crisis is the catalyst for this movement.

For more on this, see America's Wealthy Wage War Against the Middle Class.

You have two choices: you can get mad and blame your leaders, co-workers and union or you can focus your anger on the real villians, the BANKSTERS on Wall Street, and begin to do something about it today.

It's your money and future. Which will it be?

In unity ...

Scott Goold